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What are the spatial and temporal trends in chronic respiratory disease mortality among US counties from 1980 to 2014?
Mortality rates due to chronic respiratory diseases varied substantially among counties in all years. Between 1980 and 2014, chronic respiratory disease mortality increased by 29.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 25.5%-33.8%) overall, but this trend varied by county, sex, and chronic respiratory disease type.
Between 1980 and 2014, there were important differences in chronic respiratory disease mortality among US counties.
Chronic respiratory diseases are an important cause of death and disability in the United States.
To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by county from chronic respiratory diseases.
Design, Setting, and Participants
Validated small area estimation models were applied to deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics and population counts from the US Census Bureau, National Center for Health Statistics, and Human Mortality Database to estimate county-level mortality rates from 1980 to 2014 for chronic respiratory diseases.
County of residence.
Main Outcomes and Measures
Age-standardized mortality rates by county, year, sex, and cause.
A total of 4 616 711 deaths due to chronic respiratory diseases were recorded in the United States from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2014. Nationally, the mortality rate from chronic respiratory diseases increased from 40.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 39.8-41.8) deaths per 100 000 population in 1980 to a peak of 55.4 (95% UI, 54.1-56.5) deaths per 100 000 population in 2002 and then declined to 52.9 (95% UI, 51.6-54.4) deaths per 100 000 population in 2014. This overall 29.7% (95% UI, 25.5%-33.8%) increase in chronic respiratory disease mortality from 1980 to 2014 reflected increases in the mortality rate from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (by 30.8% [95% UI, 25.2%-39.0%], from 34.5 [95% UI, 33.0-35.5] to 45.1 [95% UI, 43.7-46.9] deaths per 100 000 population), interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis (by 100.5% [95% UI, 5.8%-155.2%], from 2.7 [95% UI, 2.3-4.2] to 5.5 [95% UI, 3.5-6.1] deaths per 100 000 population), and all other chronic respiratory diseases (by 42.3% [95% UI, 32.4%-63.8%], from 0.51 [95% UI, 0.48-0.54] to 0.73 [95% UI, 0.69-0.78] deaths per 100 000 population). There were substantial differences in mortality rates and changes in mortality rates over time among counties, and geographic patterns differed by cause. Counties with the highest mortality rates were found primarily in central Appalachia for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pneumoconiosis; widely dispersed throughout the Southwest, northern Great Plains, New England, and South Atlantic for interstitial lung disease; along the southern half of the Mississippi River and in Georgia and South Carolina for asthma; and in southern states from Mississippi to South Carolina for other chronic respiratory diseases.
Conclusions and Relevance
Despite recent declines in mortality from chronic respiratory diseases, mortality rates in 2014 remained significantly higher than in 1980. Between 1980 and 2014, there were important differences in mortality rates and changes in mortality by county, sex, and particular chronic respiratory disease type. These estimates may be helpful for informing efforts to improve prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.
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Corresponding Author: Christopher J. L. Murray, MD, DPhil, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 2301 Fifth Ave, Ste 600, Seattle, WA 98121 (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Accepted for Publication: August 16, 2017.
Author Contributions: Dr Murray had full access to all of the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.
Concept and design: Dwyer-Lindgren, Bertozzi-Villa, Shirude, Naghavi, Murray.
Acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data: Dwyer-Lindgren, Bertozzi-Villa, Stubbs, Morozoff, Naghavi, Mokdad, Murray.
Drafting of the manuscript: Dwyer-Lindgren, Shirude.
Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: Dwyer-Lindgren, Bertozzi-Villa, Stubbs, Morozoff, Naghavi, Mokdad, Murray.
Statistical analysis: Dwyer-Lindgren, Bertozzi-Villa, Stubbs, Mokdad.
Obtained funding: Murray.
Administrative, technical, or material support: Morozoff, Shirude, Naghavi, Murray.
Supervision: Shirude, Naghavi, Murray.
Conflict of Interest Disclosures: All authors have completed and submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest and none were reported.
Funding/Support: Research reported in this publication was supported by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (grant 72305), the National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health (grant 5P30AG047845), and John W. Stanton and Theresa E. Gillespie.
Role of the Funder/Sponsor: The funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.
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