Corresponding Author: Nicholas P. Jewell, PhD, Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom (nicholas.jewell@lshtm.ac.uk).
Published Online: April 16, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.6585
Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Drs Jewell, Lewnard, and Jewell reported currently having a paid contract with Kaiser Permanente to advise them regarding hospital demand associated with coronavirus disease 2019 cases. No other disclosures were reported.
3.@AdamJKucharski. Indeed, as this (aptly titled) piece suggests, complex models may be no more reliable than simple ones if they miss key aspects of the biology. Complex models can create the illusion of realism, and make it harder to spot crucial omissions https://www.pnas.org/content/103/33/12221. April 1, 2020. Accessed April 13, 2020.
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1245336665691807744 4.Lawler
J . What healthcare providers need to know: preparing for the COVID-19. American Hospital Association webinar. February 26, 2020. Accessed April 13, 2020.
5.Murray
CJL ; IHME COVID-19 health service utilization forecasting team. Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator-days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months.
MedRxiv. Preprint posted March 30, 2020. doi:
10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752