During epidemics, there is a critical need to understand both the likely number of infections and their time course to inform both public health and health care system responses. Approaches to forecasting the course of an epidemic vary and can include simulating the dynamics of disease transmission and recovery1,2 or empirical fitting of data trends.3 A common approach is to use epidemic compartmental models, such as the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model.1,2
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CME Disclosure Statement: Unless noted, all individuals in control of content reported no relevant financial relationships. If applicable, all relevant financial relationships have been mitigated.
Corresponding Author: Juliana Tolles, MD, MHS, Department of Emergency Medicine, Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, 1000 W Carson St, Bldg D9, Torrance, CA 90502 (email@example.com).
Published Online: May 27, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.8420
Conflict of Interest Disclosures: None reported.
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