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The COVID-19 Pandemic and the $16 Trillion Virus

Educational Objective
To identify the key insights or developments described in this article
1 Credit CME

The SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) pandemic is the greatest threat to prosperity and well-being the US has encountered since the Great Depression. This Viewpoint aggregates mortality, morbidity, mental health conditions, and direct economic losses to estimate the total cost of the pandemic in the US on the optimistic assumption that it will be substantially contained by the fall of 2021. These costs far exceed those associated with conventional recessions and the Iraq War, and are similar to those associated with global climate change. However, increased investment in testing and contact tracing could have economic benefits that are at least 30 times greater than the estimated costs of the investment in these approaches.

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Article Information

Corresponding Author: David M. Cutler, PhD, Department of Economics, Harvard University, 1805 Cambridge St, Cambridge, MA 02138 (dcutler@fas.harvard.edu).

Published Online: October 12, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.19759

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Dr Cutler reports receiving fees from serving as an expert witness for opioid and vaping litigation, personal fees for article preparation from the Brookings Institution, and research support from the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America outside the submitted work. He is also a commissioner of the Health Policy Commission in Massachusetts. Dr Summers reports receiving personal fees from various financial institutions outside the submitted work and personal fees for article preparation from the Brookings Institution.

Funding/Support: This work was funded by the National Institute on Aging under award P01AG005842.

Role of the Funder/Sponsor: The National Institute on Aging had no role in the preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Additional Information: More information on the calculations is available at http://scholar.harvard.edu/cutler.

References
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Congressional Budget Office. An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030. Congressional Budget Office; 2020.
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Jameson  D , Summers  L , Alleyne  G ,  et al  Global health 2035: a world converging in a generation.   Lancet. 2013;382:1898-1955.Google ScholarCrossref
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Robinson  L . COVID-19 and uncertainties in the value per statistical life. Regulatory Review. August 5, 2020.
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Ahmed  H , Patel  K , Greenwood  D ,  et al Long-term clinical outcomes in survivors of coronavirus outbreaks after hospitalization or ICU admission: a systematic review and meta-analysis of follow-up studies. medRxiv. Preprint posted April 22, 2020. doi:10.1101/2020.04.16.20067975
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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Mental health: Household Pulse Survey. Accessed September 5, 2020. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/pulse/mental-health.htm
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Crawford  NC . United States budgetary costs and obligations of post-9/11 wars through FY2020: $6.4 trillion. November 13, 2019. https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2019/US%20Budgetary%20Costs%20of%20Wars%20November%202019.pdf
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Nordhaus  W.   Projections and uncertainties about climate change in an era of minimal climate policies.   Am Economic J. 2018;10(3):333-360. doi:10.1257/pol.20170046Google Scholar
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World Health Organization. Criteria for releasing COVID-19 patients from isolation. Scientific Brief. June 17, 2020. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/criteria-for-releasing-covid-19-patients-from-isolation
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Bilinski  A , Mostashari  F , Salomon  JA .  Modeling contact tracing strategies for COVID-19 in the context of relaxed physical distancing measures.   JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(8):e2019217. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.19217PubMedGoogle Scholar
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Rockefeller Foundation. National Covid-19 testing and tracing action plan. July 16, 2020. Accessed September 5, 2020. https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/TheRockefellerFoundation_ExecutiveSummary_7_20.pdf
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Credit Designation Statement: The American Medical Association designates this Journal-based CME activity activity for a maximum of 1.00  AMA PRA Category 1 Credit(s)™. Physicians should claim only the credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity.

Successful completion of this CME activity, which includes participation in the evaluation component, enables the participant to earn up to:

  • 1.00 Medical Knowledge MOC points in the American Board of Internal Medicine's (ABIM) Maintenance of Certification (MOC) program;;
  • 1.00 Self-Assessment points in the American Board of Otolaryngology – Head and Neck Surgery’s (ABOHNS) Continuing Certification program;
  • 1.00 MOC points in the American Board of Pediatrics’ (ABP) Maintenance of Certification (MOC) program;
  • 1.00 Lifelong Learning points in the American Board of Pathology’s (ABPath) Continuing Certification program; and
  • 1.00 CME points in the American Board of Surgery’s (ABS) Continuing Certification program

It is the CME activity provider's responsibility to submit participant completion information to ACCME for the purpose of granting MOC credit.

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