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Excess Mortality in California During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic, March to August 2020

Educational Objective
To identify the key insights or developments described in this article
1 Credit CME

Few studies on excess deaths during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the US have documented how excess mortality varies across population subgroups.1,2 Using time-series models, we estimated excess deaths in California between March and August 2020 by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and educational level. California has a population of 39.5 million, which is approximately 12% of the US population of 328.2 million.

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Article Information

Accepted for Publication: October 26, 2020.

Published Online: December 21, 2020. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.7578

Open Access: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the CC-BY License. © 2020 Chen Y-H et al. JAMA Internal Medicine.

Corresponding Author: Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, PhD, MD, MAS, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, 550 16th St, San Francisco, CA 94158 (kirsten.bibbins-domingo@ucsf.edu).

Author Contributions: Drs Chen and Glymour had full access to all of the data in the study and take responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.

Concept and design: Chen, Glymour, Bibbins-Domingo.

Acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data: All authors.

Drafting of the manuscript: Chen, Fernandez, Bibbins-Domingo.

Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: All authors.

Statistical analysis: Chen, Glymour, Catalano, Bibbins-Domingo.

Obtained funding: Bibbins-Domingo.

Administrative, technical, or material support: Chen, Bibbins-Domingo.

Supervision: Bibbins-Domingo.

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Drs Glymour, Fernandez, Nguyen, Kushel, and Bibbins-Domingo reported receiving grants from the National Institutes of Health during the conduct of the study. No other disclosures were reported.

Additional Information: The website for the California Department of Public Health to request data is https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CHSI/Pages/Data-Applications.aspx.

References
1.
Woolf  SH , Chapman  DA , Sabo  RT , Weinberger  DM , Hill  L , Taylor  DDH .  Excess deaths from COVID-19 and other causes, March-July 2020.   JAMA. 2020;324(15):1562-1564. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.19545 PubMedGoogle ScholarCrossref
2.
Rossen  LM , Branum  AM , Ahmad  FB , Sutton  P , Anderson  RN .  Excess deaths associated with COVID-19, by age and race and ethnicity—United States, January 26-October 3, 2020.   MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2020;69(42):1522-1527. doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm6942e2 PubMedGoogle ScholarCrossref
3.
Hyndman  RJ , Athanasopoulos  G .  Forecasting: Principles and Practice. 2nd ed. OTexts; 2018.
4.
US Census Bureau. State population by characteristics: 2010-2019. Updated June 22, 2020. Accessed October 1, 2020. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-detail.html.
5.
US Census Bureau. 2018 Data profiles. Accessed October 1, 2020. https://www.census.gov/acs/www/data/data-tables-and-tools/data-profiles/.
6.
Michaels  D , Wagner  GR .  Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and worker safety during the COVID-19 pandemic.   JAMA. 2020;324(14):1389-1390. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.16343 PubMedGoogle ScholarCrossref
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