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What proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread is associated with transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from persons with no symptoms?
In this decision analytical model assessing multiple scenarios for the infectious period and the proportion of transmission from individuals who never have COVID-19 symptoms, transmission from asymptomatic individuals was estimated to account for more than half of all transmission.
The findings of this study suggest that the identification and isolation of persons with symptomatic COVID-19 alone will not control the ongoing spread of SARS-CoV-2.
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the etiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is readily transmitted person to person. Optimal control of COVID-19 depends on directing resources and health messaging to mitigation efforts that are most likely to prevent transmission, but the relative importance of such measures has been disputed.
To assess the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions in the community that likely occur from persons without symptoms.
Design, Setting, and Participants
This decision analytical model assessed the relative amount of transmission from presymptomatic, never symptomatic, and symptomatic individuals across a range of scenarios in which the proportion of transmission from people who never develop symptoms (ie, remain asymptomatic) and the infectious period were varied according to published best estimates. For all estimates, data from a meta-analysis was used to set the incubation period at a median of 5 days. The infectious period duration was maintained at 10 days, and peak infectiousness was varied between 3 and 7 days (−2 and +2 days relative to the median incubation period). The overall proportion of SARS-CoV-2 was varied between 0% and 70% to assess a wide range of possible proportions.
Main Outcomes and Measures
Level of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from presymptomatic, never symptomatic, and symptomatic individuals.
The baseline assumptions for the model were that peak infectiousness occurred at the median of symptom onset and that 30% of individuals with infection never develop symptoms and are 75% as infectious as those who do develop symptoms. Combined, these baseline assumptions imply that persons with infection who never develop symptoms may account for approximately 24% of all transmission. In this base case, 59% of all transmission came from asymptomatic transmission, comprising 35% from presymptomatic individuals and 24% from individuals who never develop symptoms. Under a broad range of values for each of these assumptions, at least 50% of new SARS-CoV-2 infections was estimated to have originated from exposure to individuals with infection but without symptoms.
Conclusions and Relevance
In this decision analytical model of multiple scenarios of proportions of asymptomatic individuals with COVID-19 and infectious periods, transmission from asymptomatic individuals was estimated to account for more than half of all transmissions. In addition to identification and isolation of persons with symptomatic COVID-19, effective control of spread will require reducing the risk of transmission from people with infection who do not have symptoms. These findings suggest that measures such as wearing masks, hand hygiene, social distancing, and strategic testing of people who are not ill will be foundational to slowing the spread of COVID-19 until safe and effective vaccines are available and widely used.
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Accepted for Publication: December 7, 2020.
Published: January 7, 2021. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.35057
Correction: This article was corrected on February 12, 2021, to fix an error in the Supplement.
Open Access: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the CC-BY License. © 2021 Johansson MA et al. JAMA Network Open.
Corresponding Author: Jay C. Butler, MD, Office of the Deputy Director for Infectious Diseases, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Rd, Mailstop H24-12, Atlanta, GA 30329 (firstname.lastname@example.org).
Author Contributions: Dr Johansson had full access to all of the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.
Concept and design: Johansson, Quandelacy, Kada, Brooks, Slayton, Butler.
Acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data: All authors.
Drafting of the manuscript: Johansson, Quandelacy, Brooks, Biggerstaff, Butler.
Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: Johansson, Kada, Prasad, Steele, Brooks, Slayton, Biggerstaff, Butler.
Statistical analysis: Johansson, Quandelacy, Kada.
Administrative, technical, or material support: Prasad, Steele, Brooks, Biggerstaff, Butler.
Supervision: Johansson, Butler.
Conflict of Interest Disclosures: None reported.
Funding/Support: This work was performed as part of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s coronavirus disease 2019 response and was supported solely by federal base and response funding.
Role of the Funder/Sponsor: The funder had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.
Disclaimer: The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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