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Changes in Shooting Incidence in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Between March and November 2020

Educational Objective
To identify the key insights or developments described in this article
1 Credit CME

Firearm violence occurred more frequently in US cities in 2020 compared with previous years.1 Two major events of 2020 may explain this increase: enactment of containment policies to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and a national reckoning with systemic racism, including widespread protests sparked by the police killing of George Floyd.1 This study evaluated independent associations between COVID-19 containment policies and the killing of George Floyd on firearm violence in 1 US city, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

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CME Disclosure Statement: Unless noted, all individuals in control of content reported no relevant financial relationships. If applicable, all relevant financial relationships have been mitigated.

Article Information

Accepted for Publication: February 2, 2021.

Published Online: February 10, 2021. doi:10.1001/jama.2021.1534

Corresponding Author: Jessica H. Beard, MD, MPH, 3401 N Broad St, Fourth Floor, Zone C, Philadelphia, PA 19140 (jbeard08@gmail.com).

Author Contributions: Drs Beard and Morrison had full access to all of the data in the study and take responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.

Concept and design: Beard, Jacoby, Dong, Goldberg, Morrison.

Acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data: Beard, Jacoby, Maher, Dong, Kaufman, Morrison.

Drafting of the manuscript: Beard, Morrison.

Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: Beard, Jacoby, Maher, Dong, Kaufman, Goldberg.

Statistical analysis: Beard, Morrison.

Administrative, technical, or material support: Beard, Maher.

Supervision: Goldberg.

Other (theoretical frameworks): Dong.

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Dr Jacoby reported receipt of grants from the Rita and Alex Hillman Foundation and from University of Pennsylvania University Research Foundation outside the submitted work. No other disclosures were reported.

References
1.
Abdallah  HO , Zhao  C , Kaufman  E ,  et al.  Increased firearm injury during the COVID-19 pandemic: a hidden urban burden.   J Am Coll Surg. 2021;232(2):159-168. doi:10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2020.09.028PubMedGoogle ScholarCrossref
2.
OpenDataPhilly. Shooting victims. Accessed December 1, 2020. https://www.opendataphilly.org/dataset/shooting-victims
3.
Kaufman  E , Holena  DN , Yang  WP ,  et al.  Firearm assault in Philadelphia, 2005-2014: a comparison of police and trauma registry data.   Trauma Surg Acute Care Open. 2019;4(1):e000316. doi:10.1136/tsaco-2019-000316PubMedGoogle Scholar
4.
Box  GE , Jenkins  GM , Reinsel  GC , Ljung  GM .  Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 5th ed. John Wiley & Sons; 2016.
5.
Kaufman  EJ , Wiebe  DJ , Xiong  RA , Morrison  CN , Seamon  MJ , Delgado  MK .  Epidemiologic trends in fatal and nonfatal firearm injuries in the US, 2009-2017.   JAMA Intern Med. 2021;181(2):237-244. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.6696PubMedGoogle ScholarCrossref
6.
Jacoby  SF , Dong  B , Beard  JH , Wiebe  DJ , Morrison  CN .  The enduring impact of historical and structural racism on urban violence in Philadelphia.   Soc Sci Med. 2018;199:87-95. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2017.05.038PubMedGoogle ScholarCrossref
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