[Skip to Content]

Claim CME

Infectious Diseases

Excess Deaths From COVID-19 and Other Causes in the US, March 1, 2020, to January 2, 2021

Educational Objective
To identify the key insights or developments described in this article

1 Credit CME

JAMA

Published Online: April 2, 2021

Research Letter

Article Information and Disclosures

Steven H. Woolf, MD, MPH¹;

Derek A. Chapman, PhD¹;

Roy T. Sabo, PhD²;

Emily B. Zimmerman, PhD, MS, MPH¹

Author Affiliations

¹Center on Society and Health, Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine, Richmond
²Department of Biostatistics, Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine, Richmond

Read article on JAMA Network

Read Article Claim CME

A study analyzing US mortality in March-July 2020 reported a 20% increase in excess deaths, only partly explained by COVID-19. Surges in excess deaths varied in timing and duration across states and were accompanied by increased mortality from non–COVID-19 causes.¹ This study updates the analysis for the remainder of 2020.

The Supplement details the methods. A Poisson regression model used mortality data from 2014-2019 to predict US expected deaths in 2020. Observed deaths in weeks ending March 1, 2020, through January 2, 2021, were taken from provisional, unweighted death counts for the District of Columbia and 49 states, excluding North Carolina for insufficient data. Data sources included the National Center for Health Statistics²^- 4 and US Census Bureau.⁵ Data for 8 geographic regions were grouped into distinctive surge patterns. COVID-19 deaths included all deaths for which COVID-19 was cited as an underlying or contributing cause.

Claim CME

Sign in to take quiz and track your certificates

Buy This Activity

Article Information

Corresponding Author: Steven H. Woolf, MD, MPH, Center on Society and Health, Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine, 830 E Main St, Ste 5035, Richmond, VA 23298-0212 (steven.woolf@vcuhealth.org).

Accepted for Publication: March 19, 2021.

Published Online: April 2, 2021. doi:10.1001/jama.2021.5199

Author Contributions: Drs Woolf and Chapman had full access to all of the data in the study and take responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.

Concept and design: Woolf, Sabo.

Acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data: All authors.

Drafting of the manuscript: Woolf, Chapman, Sabo.

Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: All authors.

Statistical analysis: All authors.

Administrative, technical, or material support: Woolf, Chapman.

Supervision: Woolf.

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: None reported.

Funding/Support: The authors received partial funding from grant UL1TR002649 from the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health (NIH). Drs Woolf and Chapman also received partial funding from grant R01AG055481 from the National Institute on Aging, NIH.

Role of the Funder/Sponsor: The NIH had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Additional Contributions: We thank Cassandra Ellison, MFA, art director for the Virginia Commonwealth University Center on Society and Health, for assistance with graphic design, and Daniel M. Weinberger, PhD, Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, for advice on modeling in previous studies. Neither was compensated for their contributions.

References

Woolf SH , Chapman DA , Sabo RT , et al. Excess deaths from COVID-19 and other causes, March-July 2020. JAMA. 2020;324(15):1562-1564. PubMed Google Scholar Crossref

Weekly counts of deaths by state and select causes, 2014-2019. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Accessed January 22, 2021. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/3yf8-kanr

Weekly counts of deaths by state and select causes, 2020-2021. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Accessed March 10, 2021. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6

Weekly counts of deaths by jurisdiction and race and Hispanic origin. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Accessed March 10, 2021. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-counts-of-deaths-by-jurisdiction-and-race-a/qfhf-uhaa

Single-race population estimates 2010-2019. CDC WONDER. Accessed February 17, 2021. http://wonder.cdc.gov/single-race-single-year-v2019.html

Chaney S , Mackrael K . With fewer Covid-19 restrictions, South’s economy outperforms nation. Wall Street Journal. Published October 17, 2020. Accessed March 10, 2021. https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-fewer-covid-restrictions-souths-economy-outperforms-nation-11602927000

AMA CME Accreditation Information

Credit Designation Statement: The American Medical Association designates this Journal-based CME activity activity for a maximum of 1.00  AMA PRA Category 1 Credit(s)™. Physicians should claim only the credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity.

Successful completion of this CME activity, which includes participation in the evaluation component, enables the participant to earn up to:

1.00 Medical Knowledge MOC points in the American Board of Internal Medicine's (ABIM) Maintenance of Certification (MOC) program;;
1.00 Self-Assessment points in the American Board of Otolaryngology – Head and Neck Surgery’s (ABOHNS) Continuing Certification program;
1.00 MOC points in the American Board of Pediatrics’ (ABP) Maintenance of Certification (MOC) program;
1.00 Lifelong Learning points in the American Board of Pathology’s (ABPath) Continuing Certification program; and
1.00 credit toward the CME [and Self-Assessment requirements] of the American Board of Surgery’s Continuous Certification program

It is the CME activity provider's responsibility to submit participant completion information to ACCME for the purpose of granting MOC credit.