Estimating COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Following the US Vaccination Campaigns During the Pandemic | Infectious Diseases | JN Learning | AMA Ed Hub [Skip to Content]
[Skip to Content Landing]

Estimating COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Following the US Vaccination Campaigns During the Pandemic

Educational Objective
To identify the key insights or developments described in this article
1 Credit CME

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 745 000 deaths in the US. However, the toll might have been higher without the rapid development and delivery of effective vaccines. As of October 28, 2021, 69% of 258 million US adults had been fully vaccinated.

Quantifying the population impact of COVID-19 vaccination can inform future vaccination strategies. Randomized clinical trials have established individual-level efficacy of authorized vaccines against the original strain, which exceeds 90% in preventing symptomatic and severe disease.13 However, the population-level effectiveness of the vaccination campaign in the US, in terms of association with reduced infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, is not as well documented, and we evaluated this using a simulation model.

Sign in to take quiz and track your certificates

Buy This Activity

CME Disclosure Statement: Unless noted, all individuals in control of content reported no relevant financial relationships. If applicable, all relevant financial relationships have been mitigated.

Article Information

Accepted for Publication: November 11, 2021.

Published: January 11, 2022. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.42725

Open Access: This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the CC-BY License. © 2022 Vilches TN et al. JAMA Network Open.

Corresponding Author: Alison P. Galvani, PhD, Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520 (alison.galvani@yale.edu).

Author Contributions: Drs Vilches and Moghadas had full access to all of the data in the study and take responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis. Drs Vilches, Moghadas, and Sah contributed equally.

Concept and design: Moghadas, Sah, Pandey, Galvani.

Acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data: Vilches, Moghadas, Sah, Fitzpatrick, Shoukat, Pandey, Galvani.

Drafting of the manuscript: Vilches, Moghadas, Sah, Fitzpatrick, Shoukat, Pandey, Galvani.

Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: Vilches, Moghadas, Sah, Fitzpatrick, Shoukat, Galvani.

Statistical analysis: Vilches, Moghadas, Shoukat, Galvani.

Obtained funding: Moghadas, Galvani.

Supervision: Moghadas, Galvani.

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: None reported.

Funding/Support: This study was supported by the Commonwealth Fund and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Emerging Infectious Diseases Modelling Initiative (Mathematics for Public Health Grant).

Role of the Funder/Sponsor: The funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

References
1.
Polack  FP , Thomas  SJ , Kitchin  N ,  et al; C4591001 Clinical Trial Group.  Safety and efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine.   N Engl J Med. 2020;383(27):2603-2615. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2034577PubMedGoogle ScholarCrossref
2.
Baden  LR , El Sahly  HM , Essink  B ,  et al; COVE Study Group.  Efficacy and safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.   N Engl J Med. 2021;384(5):403-416. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2035389PubMedGoogle ScholarCrossref
3.
Sadoff  J , Gray  G , Vandebosch  A ,  et al; ENSEMBLE Study Group.  Safety and efficacy of single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine against COVID-19.   N Engl J Med. 2021;384(23):2187-2201. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2101544PubMedGoogle ScholarCrossref
4.
Moghadas  SM , Sah  P , Vilches  TN , Galvani  AP .  Can the USA return to pre-COVID-19 normal by July 4?   Lancet Infect Dis. 2021;21(8):1073-1074. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00324-8PubMedGoogle ScholarCrossref
5.
Sah  P , Fitzpatrick  MC , Zimmer  CF ,  et al.  Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.   Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021;118(34):e2109229118. doi:10.1073/pnas.2109229118PubMedGoogle Scholar
6.
CDC. COVID Data Tracker. Published March 28, 2020. Accessed July 2, 2021. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/
Want full access to the AMA Ed Hub?
After you sign up for AMA Membership, make sure you sign in or create a Physician account with the AMA in order to access all learning activities on the AMA Ed Hub
Buy this activity
Close
Want full access to the AMA Ed Hub?
After you sign up for AMA Membership, make sure you sign in or create a Physician account with the AMA in order to access all learning activities on the AMA Ed Hub
Buy this activity
Close
With a personal account, you can:
  • Access free activities and track your credits
  • Personalize content alerts
  • Customize your interests
  • Fully personalize your learning experience
Education Center Collection Sign In Modal Right
Close

Name Your Search

Save Search
Close
With a personal account, you can:
  • Access free activities and track your credits
  • Personalize content alerts
  • Customize your interests
  • Fully personalize your learning experience
Close

Lookup An Activity

or

Close

My Saved Searches

You currently have no searches saved.

Close

My Saved Courses

You currently have no courses saved.

Close
With a personal account, you can:
  • Access free activities and track your credits
  • Personalize content alerts
  • Customize your interests
  • Fully personalize your learning experience
Education Center Collection Sign In Modal Right
Close