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Infectious Diseases

Estimating COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Following the US Vaccination Campaigns During the Pandemic

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To identify the key insights or developments described in this article

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JAMA Network Open

January 11, 2022

Research Letter

Article Information and Disclosures

Thomas N. Vilches, PhD^1,2;

Seyed M. Moghadas, PhD¹;

Pratha Sah, PhD²;

et al

Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, PhD^2,3;

Affan Shoukat, PhD²;

Abhishek Pandey, PhD²;

Alison P. Galvani, PhD²

Author Affiliations

¹Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
²Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut
³Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore

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The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 745 000 deaths in the US. However, the toll might have been higher without the rapid development and delivery of effective vaccines. As of October 28, 2021, 69% of 258 million US adults had been fully vaccinated.

Quantifying the population impact of COVID-19 vaccination can inform future vaccination strategies. Randomized clinical trials have established individual-level efficacy of authorized vaccines against the original strain, which exceeds 90% in preventing symptomatic and severe disease.¹^- 3 However, the population-level effectiveness of the vaccination campaign in the US, in terms of association with reduced infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, is not as well documented, and we evaluated this using a simulation model.

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Article Information

Accepted for Publication: November 11, 2021.

Published: January 11, 2022. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.42725

Corresponding Author: Alison P. Galvani, PhD, Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520 (alison.galvani@yale.edu).

Author Contributions: Drs Vilches and Moghadas had full access to all of the data in the study and take responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis. Drs Vilches, Moghadas, and Sah contributed equally.

Concept and design: Moghadas, Sah, Pandey, Galvani.

Acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data: Vilches, Moghadas, Sah, Fitzpatrick, Shoukat, Pandey, Galvani.

Drafting of the manuscript: Vilches, Moghadas, Sah, Fitzpatrick, Shoukat, Pandey, Galvani.

Critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content: Vilches, Moghadas, Sah, Fitzpatrick, Shoukat, Galvani.

Statistical analysis: Vilches, Moghadas, Shoukat, Galvani.

Obtained funding: Moghadas, Galvani.

Supervision: Moghadas, Galvani.

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: None reported.

Funding/Support: This study was supported by the Commonwealth Fund and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Emerging Infectious Diseases Modelling Initiative (Mathematics for Public Health Grant).

Role of the Funder/Sponsor: The funders had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

References

Polack FP , Thomas SJ , Kitchin N , et al; C4591001 Clinical Trial Group. Safety and efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine. N Engl J Med. 2020;383(27):2603-2615. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2034577 PubMed Google Scholar Crossref

Baden LR , El Sahly HM , Essink B , et al; COVE Study Group. Efficacy and safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. N Engl J Med. 2021;384(5):403-416. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2035389 PubMed Google Scholar Crossref

Sadoff J , Gray G , Vandebosch A , et al; ENSEMBLE Study Group. Safety and efficacy of single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine against COVID-19. N Engl J Med. 2021;384(23):2187-2201. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2101544 PubMed Google Scholar Crossref

Moghadas SM , Sah P , Vilches TN , Galvani AP . Can the USA return to pre-COVID-19 normal by July 4? Lancet Infect Dis. 2021;21(8):1073-1074. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(21)00324-8 PubMed Google Scholar Crossref

Sah P , Fitzpatrick MC , Zimmer CF , et al. Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021;118(34):e2109229118. doi:10.1073/pnas.2109229118 PubMed Google Scholar

CDC. COVID Data Tracker. Published March 28, 2020. Accessed July 2, 2021. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/

Estimating COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Following the US Vaccination Campaigns During the Pandemic

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